Think Blue

Obsessing over the Dodgers' minor league system so you don't have to.

Sunday, April 30, 2006

April Review

After a month of action, I think it's time to look over the Dodger prospects and see how our boys on the farm have been performing.

Hot Hitters:

At the Dodgers' Low A affiliate, Columbus RF Sergio Pedroza has had a good full season debut. After today's contest vs the Asheville Tourists, Pedroza is hitting .296 with an OBP of over .450 and a SLG just over .600. He has 19 walks compared to 16 strikeouts in 22 games, along with 7 Doubles and 5 Homeruns. It's only a matter of time before he occupies RF in Vero Beach.

Pedroza's teammate, IF Russ Mitchell, is also sporting a potent bat. Coming into Sunday, Mitchell was hitting .337/.385/.618. While his position is yet to be determined, his hitting seems to be strong enough to support him wherever he ends up in the field.

In Vero Beach, the only Dodger with an OPS of over .800 is LF Ryan Carter. While his strikeout numbers are high, so is his SLG. His .573 mark entering today's action was high enough to land him in the FSL's Top 10. While he needs to make more consistent contact and show better patience, he has provided the Dodgers with a strong presence in the middle of their lineup.

Up the beach in Jacksonville, CF Matt Kemp has been one of the best offensive players in the Southern league. Prior to Sunday's game, Kemp was Top 10 in BA, OPS, Doubles and Total Bases. While Matt's Vero Beach production might have been aided by a hitter friendly home park last year, the Baseball Grounds at Jacksonville make it difficult for any right-handed batter to put up an OPS of .900+. The 51's OF is crowded, so expect to see Kemp in Jacksonville for the remainder of the season.

In Las Vegas, 2B/3B Willy Aybar has surprised many with how well he's hit the ball this spring. After being sent down in favor of Ramon Martinez, Aybar has put up an OPS of 1.051 which ranks 4th in the PCL. He's hit as many HR so far this year as he did all of last year between LV and LA. While Andy LaRoche is struggling, 3B is not an option for Aybar. He will need to prove that he can play 2B efficiently and continue hitting to have a shot at an ML job within the next few years.

1B/OF Joel Guzman is good at two things: striking out and hitting Homeruns. While he's struck out almost once a game this month, he's also hit .333 with an IsoP of over .200. When I've seen him play the OF, he's shown good effort and range. He's surprisingly quick for a guy his size. With Jose Cruz Jr struggling and Jason Repko bound to regress, Guzman could be on the ML roster by midseason.

The other option for LF is OF Andre Ethier. While Ethier doesnt have the power of Guzman, he has more experience in the OF and a more polished bat. He's hitting .363/.453/.513 with 3 Doubles, 3 Triples but only 1 Homerun. Still, he's still an option for the near future and seems to be ready to move up a level.

Hot Pitchers:

While Columbus lacks a "real pitching prospect," a couple of older lefties have done well through their first handful of starts. LHP Brent Leach and LHP Alberto Bastardo have been the most successful of the staff. Leach, who recently struck out 14 batters in just 5 innings, has posted an ERA of 3.86 with 35 Strikeouts in 23.1 Innings. Bastardo, coming off a no-decision, has lowered his ERA to 1.65 and is just begging for a callup to Vero Beach. Both shouldnt spend more than another month or two in Low A.

In Vero Beach, RHP's Blake Johnson and Julio Pimentel, along with LHP Scott Elbert are worth following. Johnson, also coming off a no-decision today, has lowered his ERA to 2.93 and has struck out 22 in 27.2 Innings, while allowing just 6 Walks and 2 Homeruns. Pimentel, who's repeating High A at the ripe old age of 20, has had less success than Johnson and Elbert. In 21 Innings, his ERA is 4.29 and he's struck out 18 but he's also walked 12. Lowering those walks will be key to his success. Speaking of lowering his walks, Scott Elbert has continued dominating in his third season of pro ball. The 2004 first rounder has allowed just a 2.19 ERA in 24.2 Innings with 23 strikeouts. But, like last year, he's walking a batter every other inning. While the walks arent hurting him now, he needs to learn how to control his excellent arsenal so it's not an issue in the future.

RHP Justin Orenduff has good peripherals (32 K's and 8 Walks in 25.1 Innings), but is posting an ERA of 4.26. He's allowing a Homerun every other start, which is acceptable, but needs to keep the ball down more as he has flyball tendencies. If Billingsley is called up later this year, look for Orenduff to take his place in Las Vegas. RHP Joel Hanrahan came into the season having 3 years of experience at or above Jacksonville, and has done well thus far. After today's loss, his ERA is still just 3.49 and he's striking out a batter an inning. However, walks are hurting him as he's issued 14 in 28.1 innings. It's encouraging to see him doing well and hopefully he'll keep up the good work.

Quickly establishing himself as the best pitcher in the minors, RHP Chad Billingsley has forgotten the "Hitter's League" label of the PCL and dominated much older competition. After flirting with a no-hitter for 8 innings of work, Billingsley saw his ERA lower to a miniscule 1.59 which easily makes the Top 10 in the league. He's struck out 31 batters in 28.1 Innings, allowed 10 Walks and 2 Homeruns. His peripherals are good, though he could stand to lower the walks just a tad. He's proving to everyone that he's ready for the majors and should be up with the big club by the trade deadline.

What a Relief

Throughout the Dodgers' system, relievers are putting up dominant performances. Here are the best of the best:

RHP James McDonal is pitching again and pitching well for Columbus. 18 strikeouts in 13.1 Innings with a 2.70 ERA.

RHP Zach Hammes has been holding it down in Vero, having walked just one batter in 17.1 Innings. He's struck out 16 and has an ERA of 2.60.

Jacksonville may have the best pen in the minors. RHP Jose Diaz is being used sparingly after excperiencing pain in his throwing arm a year removed from surgery, but he's having success in his first year of Double A. While the strikeout numbers you'd expect arent there (2 in 8 innings of work), he's walked only 1 batter and allowed only 1 run on 4 hits. RHP Mark Alexander has assumed the role of closer and is doing an impressive job. He has yet to allow an earned run in 11 innings of work, giving up just 2 hits and 3 walks while racking up 17 strikeouts. And to round things out, LHP Greg Miller has been nearly untouchable this spring. The 6'5 lefty is finally healthy and it shows in his numbers: 12 innings, 2 Hits (Both singles), 0 Runs, 6 Walks, 12 Strikeouts. He continues to throw in the mid 90s with a plus curveball. I'm not sure what the Dodgers' long term plans for him are, but it would be awesome to see him starting again.

Las Vegas has two of the more dominant right-handed relievers in the minors. RHP Eric Hull has been targetted for a move to the pen given his short stature (He's 5'10) and his low 90s heat. He's had success in that role, allowing just 1 ER in 11 innings while striking out 20. He could be a candidate for a middle relief or long man role down the road. RHP Jon Broxton is fast becoming one of the most feared pitchers in the minors. Armed with a mid to high 90s heater and a devastating slider, "The Bull" has blown away PCL hitters to the tune of 18 strikeouts in 11.1 innings through the first month of the season. It's only a matter of time until he's back in LA to stay.

Walk This Way

While I've already mentioned Sergio Pedroza, some other hitters in the Dodgers' system are showing improved patience at the plate.

2B Blake DeWitt hasnt gotten off to what I'd call a hot start, but he's surely getting on base at a good clip. Though he's hitting just .271 with no Homeruns, his 11 walks have pushed his OBP up to .351, which is more than acceptable for the 20 year old.

In Jacksonville, a pair of infielders are defying the odds (and their career norms). SS Chin Lung Hu walked just 19 times in 116 games last year. But the dainty glove-man has drawn 13 free passes through 23 games in Double A. I've havent read anything about his approach improving, but hopefully he can continue to show patience. 3B Andy LaRoche is being pitched around and isnt having a good start to the year. He's hit only 2 Homeruns and is batting .226. But "Roche" has already drawn 14 walks in 23 games, after drawing 51 in 127 games between Vero Beach and Jacksonville in 2005. Hopefully his bat will come around soon.

Las Vegas is seeing a lot of walks as well. The aforementioned Ethier has drawn 12, Aybar has drawn 9, though Joel Guzman has just 3 so far. C Russ Martin has recovered from a slow start and is now hitting .286 with 12 walks for an OBP of .390. OF Delwyn Young is struggling to hit for power, but has received 8 free passes to boost his OBP up to .313 (He's batting just .240).

Complete stats, schedules and audio links can be found at http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/app/index.jsp?cid=milb.

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