Think Blue

Obsessing over the Dodgers' minor league system so you don't have to.

Saturday, October 20, 2007

Dodgers' Top 50 Prospects: 30-21

30. Wilfredo Diaz, LHP HT: 5'11 WT: 180 B: L T: L DOB: 1/22/1987
Acquired: Selected in 15th round of 2005 Draft
2007 Statistics: 55 IP, 62 H, 5 HR, 23 BB, 61 K 4.58 ERA

The Good: Smooth, easy delivery with quick, clean arm action. Good deception and some downhill plane thanks to high 3/4 delivery. Curve has tight spin with big, late break. Change shows promise.

The Bad: At just 5'11, has little projection left in him. Fastball sits in mid to upper 80s. Ceiling is limited to back of the rotation starter. Has spent first 3 pro seasons in rookie ball.

The Future: Diaz will finally get his first taste of full season ball when he joins Great Lakes next spring. He just missed the Pioneer League's Top 20 list, so he is a legit prospect. But his frame and stuff limits his potential and since he'll be 21 entering the 2008 season, Wilfredo will have to move quickly.

29. Yosanddy Garcia, 2B HT: 6'0 WT: 170 B: R T: R DOB: 10/20/1987
Acquired: Signed out of Dominican Republic July 7, 2004
2007 Statistics: .252/.338/.488 in 38 Games

The Good: Former top international signee more than doubled his career HR total, tallying 8 in the GCL while playing sporadically. Provides punch in the middle infield. Should handle 2B after moving from SS.

The Bad: Has spent the last 3 seasons in the GCL. Would be a better prospect at SS. Though he walked enough (16 in 145 PA's) his strikeout rate was too high (40 in 127 AB). Shows little speed for a middle infielder.

The Future: Garcia has to get into full season ball next year. Cutting down on the strikeouts will really help his development, as he has the power to be an impact hitter. Hopefully he'll open next year as Great Lakes' starting 2B.

28. Alfredo Silverio, OF HT: 6'1 WT: 185 B: R T: R DOB: 5/6/1987
Acquired: Signed out of Dominican Republic November 13, 2003
2007 Statistics: .373/.406/.544 in 51 Games

The Good: Freakishly good GCL season, was an MVP candidate. Great power to pull side. Enough arm to play right field. Home/Road and Left/Right splits were beneficial.

The Bad: Came out of nowhere, after OPSing under .800 in his 3rd season with the DSL Dodgers. Tries to pull everything and needs to use the whole field. Struggles with soft stuff away. Speed is just average.

The Future: Should skip Ogden and head to Great Lakes or even the Inland Empire. Extraordinary BABIP (.421) will drop considerably and he'll have to do a better job of drawing walks to maintain a high OBP.

27. Zach Hammes, RHP HT: 6'7 WT: 245 B: R T: R DOB: 5/15/1984
Acquired: Selected in 2nd round of 2002 Draft
2007 Statistics: 94.2 IP, 110 H, 11 HR, 30 BB, 76 K 5.23 ERA

The Good: Broke out last year in the Hawaii Winter League while working in relief. Started throwing in the mid 90s with regularity coming out of the pen. Showed good command of his slider.

The Bad: Struggled this year as a starter. While he throws hard, his fastball is relatively straight. His slider breaks out of his hand, eliminating much deception.

The Future: After inexplicably being used as a starter in 2007, Hammes' future lies in relief. He'll likely head to Vegas to start 2008 and could join the Dodgers' pen sometime next season.

26. Ryan Rogowski, OF HT: 6'2 WT: 200 B: L T: L DOB: 1/26/1984
Acquired: Signed as non-drafted free agent August 28, 2005
2007 Statistics: .253/.347/.381 in 121 Games

The Good: Profiles as a good leadoff hitter. Has the quintessential speed/on-base ability that you look for in a table-setter. Has stolen 69 bases and been caught 12 times as a pro. Has also walked 106 times in 816 plate appearances.

The Bad: Power profiles as below average, as he has just 7 HR in 191 games. XBH totals in 2007 were inflated by the Cal league. Will be 24 on opening day in 2008.

The Future: Was extremely unlucky, posting a .297 BABIP in 2007. Should bounce back in 2008 with the Jacksonville Suns, for whom he should bat leadoff.

25. Kyle Orr, 1B HT: 6'5 WT: 205 B: L T: R DOB: 9/29/1988
Acquired: Selected in 4th round of 2006 Draft
2007 Statistics: .228/.330/.329 in 48 Games

The Good: While Kyle had a disappointing debut, he struggled against righties and his .311 BABIP was well below league average. His frame lends many to project him to have massive power down the road. Hit surprisingly well against lefties (.308/.390/.481).

The Bad: Orr has a ways to go as far as polishing his offensive game. Flyball tendencies don't bode well for his BABIP. His walk rate was fine but he struck out too much (47 in 158 AB). Can play OF but would lose some value if he stays at 1B.

The Future: Hopefully the Dodgers will take it slowly with Orr, who will play as a 19 year old next season. Hold him back in extended spring training and let him get his feet wet in the Pioneer League during the summer.

24. Preston Mattingly, 2B HT: 6'3 WT: 205 B: R T: R DOB: 8/28/1987
Acquired: Selected in Supplemental 1st round of 2006 Draft
2007 Statistics: .210/.251/.297 in 107 Games

The Good: Uber-athletic son of former All Star Don, Preston was a three-sport star in high school. Has excellent speed for someone his size and good bat speed.

The Bad: He's as raw as he is athletic. Walked in about 5% of his PA's in 2007. Struck out 119 times in 404 at bats. Had to be moved off SS after committing 15 errors in 18 games. Moved to 2B but still struggled and will eventually end up in either CF or LF.

The Future: Mattingly looked like a rookie league player in full season colors this summer. He has a long way to go before realizing his immense potential and I wouldn't be surprised if Preston's back in Great Lakes to start 2008.

23. Jaime Ortiz, 1B HT: 6'3 WT: 200 B: L T: L DOB: 7/14/1988
Acquired: Selected in 7th round of 2006 Draft
2007 Statistics: .274/.333/.473 in 59 Games

The Good: Ranked #12 on's Top 20 Pioneer League Prospect list. His power is well above average and should spread to all fields as he matures as a hitter. Has soft hands defensively.

The Bad: Jaime could stand to cut down on the K's. Really needs to work on using the whole field. Can also stand to work the count better and draw more walks. Well below average runner.

The Future: Moving to Great Lakes will show if Ortiz' power is for real. He'll play the majority of next year as a 19 year old, so he's on a good pace as a prospect.

22. Justin Orenduff, RHP HT: 6'4 WT: 205 B: R T: R DOB: 5/27/1983
Acquired: Selected in Supplemental 1st round of 2004 Draft
2007 Statistics: 109 IP, 112 H, 16 HR, 45 BB, 113 K 4.21 ERA

The Good: Finally healthy after recovering from shoulder surgery, Orenduff struck out more than a batter an inning in his second-go-round in Double A. Uses a low 90s fastball and sometimes overuses his mid 80s slider.

The Bad: After giving up 13 HR in his first 210.2 IP, he allowed 16 this season. Justin's walk rate also rose and he was more hittable. His flyball tendencies don't bode well for him lowering his HR rate, but hopefully he can return to previous seasons' form.

The Future: "Duff Man" will turn 25 early next season, so he needs to get to the majors in a hurry. He's a darkhorse to make the rotation if an injury occurs next season and could join the team by midseason as a reliever.

21. Lucas May, C HT: 6'0 WT: 190 B: R T: R DOB: 10/24/1984
Acquired: Selected in 8th round of 2003 Draft
2007 Statistics: .256/.313/.465 in 128 Games

The Good: Very good athlete for a catcher, actually began his career as a SS and played the OF before being converted last offseason. Tied for second in the league with 25 HR. His .280 BABIP is about .030 to .040 points below league average, so his numbers could actually improve next season. Best defensive tool is his plus arm strength.

The Bad: Still very new to catching, May was credited with 31 passed balls in 2007. He stole 5 bases but was caught 7 times. Walk rate could improve.

The Future: Should be Jacksonville's starting catcher in 2008. I see his future as more of a super utility in the bigs. Power numbers should drop but BA and OBP should raise next season.


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