Think Blue

Obsessing over the Dodgers' minor league system so you don't have to.

Saturday, June 09, 2007

Draft Review Part 2

Russell Martin, Matt Kemp and Andy LaRoche were all taken after the first 5 rounds of the draft. The Dodgers made 34 picks on day 2 and there could be another Martin or Kemp or LaRoche among them. Now I'll go over the second tier of draft picks and try to find some hidden gems.

Rounds 6 and 7: Justin Miller and Danny Danielson, RHP's

Miller and Danielson were two guys I spotted prior to the draft. Both are projectable righties who came on this spring and really raised their stock due to improved stuff. Miller was undrafted out of high school and attended Johnson County CC in Kansas, where he established himself as the best Juco pitcher in the state. He's a good athlete who started in right field when he wasnt pitching. Coming into the spring, Miller stood 6'2 and 180 lbs while sitting in the 86-87mph range with his fastball. But after adding 2 inches and 20 lbs to his frame, his fastball jumped to the low 90s. He also has a usable slider and should continue to improve his stuff with coaching and experience.

Danielson attended the high profile Russell County HS in Alabama, the alma mater of Colby and Cory Rasmus, who are now prospects in the Cardinals' and Braves' systems. Danielson has gotten much less hype but has an impressive 6'5 210 lbs frame and a fastball that has touched 93mph. He will have to continue to improve his secondary offerings but could be a real steal given his size and projectability.


Rounds 8 and 12: Alex Garabedian and Jessie Mier, C's

The Dodgers took a couple of big backstops early on the second day. Garabedian was a high profile high school senior who attended the University of Miami before transferring to the College of Charleston after his freshman year. Garabedian's 6'2 220 lbs frame matches his power/power package, as he hit .356 with 13 Homeruns this spring and shut down opposing base stealers. He's still raw defensively but gives an all out effort and is very aggressive.

Mier is a different story. He was drafted as a college sophomore by the Indians but decided to stay 4 years at Lewis and Clark state. Mier's defense is his calling card, registering 1.9 pop times to second with regularity and showing the ability to call a quality game. He's also bilingual, an invaluable asset for any organization with latin american players. And while his glove is his best tool, Mier hit very well this season, putting up the same .356 average that Garabedian posted. These two compliment each other nicely, and should provide quality depth to a system that was short on catchers.


Rounds 11 and 21: Paul Koss and Terry Doyle, RHP's

A pair of righties from predominant colleges, both made the Cape Cod League Top 30 Prospects list last year. Koss was USC's closer in 2006 but a terrible season saw him go undrafted and return to school for his senior season. It was the right move, as Koss vastly improved his ERA from 6.28 to 2.52 and led the PAC 10 with 14 saves. Koss' big frame belies his stuff, which doesnt project dominate pro hitters. While his slider rates his as a plus pitch, his fastball sits around 90 and is just an average offering. He looks like a bigger version of Mark Alexander. Koss should move extremely fast through the system, but his future with the big club is uncertain given his underwhelming fastball.

Doyle is another imposing figure on the mound, standing 6'4 230 lbs. He also enjoyed a successful stay in the Cape, finishing 2nd in wins and strikeouts on the way to being named the MVP of the playoffs as his team won the championship. Unfortunately, like Koss, Doyle has an unimpressive fastball that sits in the mid 80s. He has a good curveball and relies on commanding his 4 pitch repertoire to have any success. Unless he can add velocity, I dont see him being anymore than a Triple A reliever/long man. Maybe a move to the pen could boost his fastball to the 90mph range.


Rounds 14 and 16: Devin Fuller and Andres Santiago, RHP's

Fuller and Santiago are a pair of pitchers who are built more like linebackers. Fuller was ranked as the 4th best player in the state of Arizona by Perfect Game Crosschecker. After giving up football to pursue a career in baseball last fall, Fuller's velocity jumped from the mid 80s to the low 90s and his stock soared. Fuller also has flashed a plus slurve/slider around 80mph that has promise. Given his 6'3 230 lbs frame and the amount of effort in his delivery, to go along with the fact that he was drafted out of the state of Arizona, the obvious comparison is Jon Meloan. Fuller is committed to Arizona State and may honor that commitment if he doesnt receive a hefty bonus.

Santiago was the only Puerto Rican drafted by the Dodgers this year. He has a big, strong frame and a loose arm that generates fastballs in the 88-90 range. Santiago also has the potential to spin a good curveball in the mid 70s, though the pitch is still inconsistent. He doesnt really have a changeup and will need to develop one if he wants to remain a starter. Unlike Fuller, Santiago should be a fairly easy sign and, as a 17 year old, could spend the next 2 years in the rookie leagues.


Rounds 19 and 31: Joris Bert and Rafael Thomas, OF's

Bert and Thomas are a couple of rabbits with very different backgrounds. Bert played 5 years with the French national team before coming to America to attend a junior college in Texas. His best tool is his speed and he stole 38 bases this spring. He also hit .403 and is a good bunter. Joris could be the first Native Frenchman to be drafted and signed to a professional contract.

Thomas is another speed demon who is very aggressive on the basepaths and fits the mold of a classic leadoff hitter. He uses his speed to cover lots of ground in center field and even has some pop in his bat. He's committed to Oklahoma State and will likely attend college unless he gets a top 10 round money.


Rounds 20 and 25: Sean Koecheler and Tim Sexton, RHP's

Koecheler and Sexton are a pair of 6'5 Florida righties with big frames. Koecheler was rated as the 13th best prospect in the state with the chance to go in the top 10 rounds. For whatever reason, he fell all the way to round 20 and would have been an ideal candidate as a draft and follow under the old rules. Now, the Dodgers will either have to cough up a substantial bonus or watch him go to college and lose his rights in 2 months. Sean has impressive arm strength, running his fastball up to 95 while sitting in the low 90s. He's more of a thrower right now and needs to work on his curveball. He's considered signable, though he'd need a six figure bonus to skip college.

Sexton is almost identical, in that he has a great frame with good arm strength and lacks a consistent breaking ball. However, Sexton has a commitment to the College of Charleston and will likely honor it unless he gets a good amount of cash. Sexton's delivery may need to be altered, as the drop and drive he uses negates his height advantage and flattens out his curve. Both of these guys would be interesting projects but it's unlikely that either one will sign.


Rounds 23 and 28: Nathan Carter and Nathan Woods, OF's

A pair of Nathans who share athleticism and the ability to play multiple positions. Carter is the brother of D Backs' prospect Chris. While his brother is relegated to first base, Nathan Carter is able to handle the middle of the infield with plus speed and plus arm strength. And despite a smallish 5'11 185 lbs frame, he has surprising power. The downside is his signability, as he committed to Air Force to fulfill his dream of becoming a pilot. If the Dodgers can buy him out of attending college, he'd be an absolute steal.

Woods is much bigger than Carter, standing 6'5 and 200 lbs. He caught in his first two years of high school before outgrowing the position. He's a capable defender at first base and has enough arm strength for an outfield corner. He's also considered a prospect as a pitcher and should play both ways at Belmont. Woods' power potential is intriguing and he should continue to develop his hitting ability in college.


Rounds 26 and 27: Taylor Cole, RHP and Rob Rasmussen, LHP

The Dodgers took a flier on a couple of prep pitchers in the middle rounds, though both of them will likely attend college in the fall. Cole was a late riser this spring, who came out of the shoot firing low 90s fastballs and a quality slider. Though he's only listed at 6'1 175 lbs, he's very athletic and doubled as his team's shortstop. His two way ability led his team to a Nevada state title and he could play both ways at Brigham Young.

Rasmussen is another miniature hurler from the west coast, pitching for Poly HS in Pasadena. Rob's calling card is his mid 70s curveball, which ranked as one of the best breaking balls in the draft. His fastball is fringy, sitting in the mid to high 80s and his 5'10 155 lbs frame doesnt leave much room for projection. Rasmussen is committed to UCLA and will almost certainly end up there.


That about wraps it up. I'll try to update the signing over the next 2 months which will help give us a better idea of how this draft class will look. Any questions or constructive comments are welcomed.

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